{
  "updated_bkk": "2026-10-29 04:49:27+0700",
  "title": "UP/Down Bet · 24/7 · cible 85%",
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    "precision_goal": 0.85,
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    "notes": [
      "Plafond 80% close≠open 5m jugé irréaliste; edge robuste ~60/68%",
      "Alt métrique: precision@move≥8bps ~65–66% BTC"
    ]
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      "pnl_model": "pepperstone_even_money",
      "stake_usdt": 100.0,
      "spread_bps": 2.5,
      "fee_source": "pepperstone_btcusd_spread_observed",
      "regime": "pepperstone_even_money_500_100_lev200 since 2026-10-28 13:11:25+0700",
      "leverage": 200
    },
    "config": {
      "capital_usdt": 500.0,
      "risk_pct": 0.05,
      "fee_mode": "spread",
      "taker_fee": 0.0008,
      "maker_fee": 0.0,
      "symbols_allowed": [
        "BTC",
        "GOLD"
      ],
      "min_confidence": 0.0,
      "max_open_bets": 5,
      "halt_on_equity_below": 100.0,
      "indicator_dir": "/workspace/market-indicator-5m/data",
      "journal_path": "/workspace/market-indicator-5m/data/journal.jsonl",
      "status_path": "/workspace/market-indicator-5m/data/status.json",
      "poll_seconds": 15,
      "timezone": "Asia/Bangkok",
      "notes": "Paper Pepperstone even-money SOURCE OF TRUTH: capital 500, stake 100, win=+100, loss=-100, push 0 (spread_bps informational only). Autonomous OKX settle if no v8 outcome; refund if no price after grace. Single book = this bet_engine (data/state.json). paper_ps engine STOPPED (tick RO optional). No MT5 orders. Nick untouched.",
      "min_move_bps": 8.0,
      "fee_source": "pepperstone_btcusd_spread_observed",
      "use_blend": true,
      "blend_path": "/workspace/market-indicator-5m/data/pred_blend.json",
      "blend_max_age_s": 240,
      "extras_dir": "/workspace/market-indicator-5m/data/extras",
      "signal_extras_path": "/workspace/trading/own_strategy/updown_bet/data/signal_extras.json",
      "extras_max_age_s": 180,
      "use_extras_resolve": true,
      "extras_resolve_min_strength": 0.35,
      "use_majority_vote": true,
      "majority_min_sources": 3,
      "local_extras_dir": "/workspace/trading/own_strategy/updown_bet/data/extras",
      "min_edge_bps": 2.5,
      "pnl_model": "pepperstone_even_money",
      "push_policy": "abs(move)<min_move_bps -> push 0; win +stake, loss -stake (even_money fee=0)",
      "spread_bps": 2.5,
      "stake_usdt": 100.0,
      "mexc_fallback": {
        "pnl_model": "mexc_futures_rt",
        "taker_fee": 0.0008,
        "min_edge_bps": 16.0,
        "fee_mode": "taker",
        "fee_source": "mexc_futures_api_observed"
      },
      "pepperstone_mt5": {
        "vps": "160.236.128.88",
        "login": 51591720,
        "server": "PepperstoneBS-MT5-Live01",
        "symbol": "BTCUSD",
        "vol_min": 0.01,
        "contract_size": 1.0,
        "nick_magic": 20261027,
        "nick_symbol": "XAUUSD",
        "proposed_btc_magic": 20261028,
        "live_orders": false
      },
      "leverage": 200,
      "margin_note": "Live CFD futur (interdit sans OK opérateur): marge ≈ stake/leverage = 100/200 = 0.5$ par mise. Paper = even-money +100/-100 sur bankroll 500.",
      "autonomous_settle": true,
      "autonomous_settle_grace_s": 20,
      "autonomous_settle_refund_after_s": 900,
      "okx_inst": {
        "BTC": "BTC-USDT-SWAP",
        "GOLD": "XAUT-USDT"
      }
    },
    "win_rate": 0.2222222222222222,
    "open_bets": {},
    "recent_events": [
      {
        "event": "majority_vote",
        "symbol": "BTC",
        "signal": "DOWN",
        "from": "DOWN",
        "n": 5,
        "up": 0,
        "down": 5,
        "sources": [
          "mexc=DOWN",
          "blend_chart=DOWN",
          "blend_extras=DOWN",
          "multi_okx=DOWN",
          "multi_binance=DOWN"
        ],
        "pred_ts_ms": 1793220300000,
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-29 03:50:45+0700"
      },
      {
        "event": "majority_vote",
        "symbol": "GOLD",
        "signal": "DOWN",
        "from": "ABSTAIN",
        "n": 5,
        "up": 2,
        "down": 3,
        "sources": [
          "okx_taker=UP",
          "mexc=UP",
          "blend_extras=DOWN",
          "multi_binance=DOWN",
          "multi_bybit=DOWN"
        ],
        "pred_ts_ms": 1793220300000,
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-29 03:50:45+0700"
      },
      {
        "event": "majority_vote",
        "symbol": "BTC",
        "signal": "UP",
        "from": "UP",
        "n": 5,
        "up": 5,
        "down": 0,
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          "mexc=UP",
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          "multi_okx=UP",
          "multi_binance=UP",
          "multi_bybit=UP"
        ],
        "pred_ts_ms": 1793220600000,
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-29 03:55:15+0700"
      },
      {
        "event": "majority_vote",
        "symbol": "GOLD",
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        "from": "UP",
        "n": 4,
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        "sources": [
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        "pred_ts_ms": 1793220600000,
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      },
      {
        "event": "majority_vote",
        "symbol": "BTC",
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        "n": 5,
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        "sources": [
          "mexc=DOWN",
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        ],
        "pred_ts_ms": 1793220900000,
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      {
        "event": "majority_vote",
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        "down": 4,
        "sources": [
          "mexc=UP",
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          "multi_okx=DOWN"
        ],
        "pred_ts_ms": 1793220900000,
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-29 04:00:15+0700"
      },
      {
        "event": "majority_vote",
        "symbol": "BTC",
        "signal": "UP",
        "from": "ABSTAIN",
        "n": 4,
        "up": 3,
        "down": 1,
        "sources": [
          "mexc=UP",
          "multi_okx=UP",
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          "multi_bybit=UP"
        ],
        "pred_ts_ms": 1793221200000,
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-29 04:45:39+0700"
      },
      {
        "event": "majority_vote",
        "symbol": "GOLD",
        "signal": "UP",
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        "up": 3,
        "down": 2,
        "sources": [
          "mexc=UP",
          "okx_paxg=DOWN",
          "multi_okx=DOWN",
          "multi_binance=UP",
          "multi_bybit=UP"
        ],
        "pred_ts_ms": 1793221200000,
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-29 04:45:39+0700"
      },
      {
        "event": "majority_vote",
        "symbol": "BTC",
        "signal": "UP",
        "from": "UP",
        "n": 5,
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        "down": 1,
        "sources": [
          "blend_chart=UP",
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          "mexc=UP",
          "multi_okx=UP",
          "multi_binance=DOWN"
        ],
        "pred_ts_ms": 1793223600000,
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-29 04:45:54+0700"
      },
      {
        "event": "majority_vote",
        "symbol": "GOLD",
        "signal": "DOWN",
        "from": "ABSTAIN",
        "n": 5,
        "up": 2,
        "down": 3,
        "sources": [
          "blend_extras=DOWN",
          "mexc=UP",
          "okx_paxg=DOWN",
          "multi_okx=DOWN",
          "multi_binance=UP"
        ],
        "pred_ts_ms": 1793223600000,
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-29 04:45:54+0700"
      }
    ],
    "journal_csv_tail": [
      "2026-10-28 21:55:22+0700,bet_loss,BTC,UP,100.0,spread,0.0,-100.0,100.0,False,DOWN,1793199000000,1793199300000,\"majority UP 4/5 (80% UP) [mexc=UP, blend_chart=UP, blend_extras=UP, multi_okx=UP, multi_binance=DOWN]\",blend-v10",
      "2026-10-28 21:56:22+0700,bet_push,GOLD,DOWN,100.0,spread,0.0,0.0,100.0,,DOWN,1793199000000,1793199300000,\"majority DOWN 2/5 (40% UP) [mexc=DOWN, okx_paxg=DOWN, blend_chart=DOWN, blend_extras=UP, multi_okx=UP]\",blend-v10+maj",
      "2026-10-28 22:00:07+0700,bet_open,BTC,UP,100.0,spread,,,100.0,,,1793199600000,1793199900000,\"majority UP 3/3 (100% UP) [blend_extras=UP, multi_okx=UP, multi_bybit=UP]\",blend-v10",
      "2026-10-28 22:05:23+0700,bet_push,BTC,UP,100.0,spread,0.0,0.0,100.0,,UP,1793199600000,1793199900000,\"majority UP 3/3 (100% UP) [blend_extras=UP, multi_okx=UP, multi_bybit=UP]\",blend-v10",
      "2026-10-28 22:10:08+0700,bet_open,BTC,DOWN,100.0,spread,,,100.0,,,1793200200000,1793200500000,\"majority DOWN 2/5 (40% UP) [mexc=UP, blend_chart=UP, blend_extras=DOWN, multi_okx=DOWN, multi_binance=DOWN]\",blend-v10+maj",
      "2026-10-28 22:15:24+0700,bet_push,BTC,DOWN,100.0,spread,0.0,0.0,100.0,,UP,1793200200000,1793200500000,\"majority DOWN 2/5 (40% UP) [mexc=UP, blend_chart=UP, blend_extras=DOWN, multi_okx=DOWN, multi_binance=DOWN]\",blend-v10+maj",
      "2026-10-28 22:20:09+0700,bet_open,BTC,UP,100.0,spread,,,100.0,,,1793200800000,1793201100000,\"majority UP 4/5 (80% UP) [mexc=UP, blend_chart=UP, blend_extras=DOWN, multi_okx=UP, multi_binance=UP]\",blend-v10+maj",
      "2026-10-28 22:25:25+0700,bet_push,BTC,UP,100.0,spread,0.0,0.0,100.0,,UP,1793200800000,1793201100000,\"majority UP 4/5 (80% UP) [mexc=UP, blend_chart=UP, blend_extras=DOWN, multi_okx=UP, multi_binance=UP]\",blend-v10+maj",
      "2026-10-28 22:30:10+0700,bet_open,BTC,UP,100.0,spread,,,100.0,,,1793201400000,1793201700000,\"majority UP 5/5 (100% UP) [mexc=UP, blend_chart=UP, blend_extras=UP, multi_okx=UP, multi_binance=UP]\",blend-v10",
      "2026-10-28 22:35:25+0700,bet_loss,BTC,UP,100.0,spread,0.0,-100.0,0.0,False,DOWN,1793201400000,1793201700000,\"majority UP 5/5 (100% UP) [mexc=UP, blend_chart=UP, blend_extras=UP, multi_okx=UP, multi_binance=UP]\",blend-v10"
    ]
  },
  "live_bets": {
    "source": "MEXC",
    "mode": "live",
    "session_label": "live_1h_api",
    "status": "ended",
    "status_label": "Session live MEXC — terminée",
    "symbols": [
      "BTC",
      "GOLD"
    ],
    "stake_usdt": 25.0,
    "window_minutes": 60,
    "fee_mode": "taker",
    "taker_fee": 0.0008,
    "maker_fee": 0.0,
    "capital_risk_usdt": 50.0,
    "max_concurrent": 2,
    "session_start_bkk": "2026-10-28 11:13:08+0700",
    "session_end_bkk": "2026-10-28 12:13:08+0700",
    "window_remaining_sec": 0,
    "n_open": 0,
    "n_wins": 0,
    "n_losses": 2,
    "n_pushes": 0,
    "n_bets": 2,
    "win_rate": 0.0,
    "realized_pnl_usdt": -0.359,
    "unrealized_pnl_usdt": 0.0,
    "fees_paid_usdt": 0.3957,
    "risk_used_usdt": 0,
    "open_bets": [],
    "closed_bets": [
      {
        "id": null,
        "symbol": "BTC",
        "side": "DOWN",
        "stake_usdt": null,
        "entry_bkk": null,
        "settle_bkk": "2026-10-28 10:54:29+0700",
        "expiry_bkk": null,
        "entry_price": 81142.3,
        "exit_price": 81118.4,
        "mark_price": null,
        "hit": null,
        "fee_usdt": 0.19471275999999998,
        "pnl_usdt": -0.158863,
        "status": "lost",
        "order_id": null,
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        "vol": 15,
        "raw_pnl": 0.03585
      },
      {
        "id": null,
        "symbol": "GOLD",
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        "stake_usdt": null,
        "entry_bkk": null,
        "settle_bkk": "2026-10-28 10:54:45+0700",
        "expiry_bkk": null,
        "entry_price": 4053.0,
        "exit_price": 4052.97,
        "mark_price": null,
        "hit": null,
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        "pnl_usdt": -0.200098,
        "status": "lost",
        "order_id": null,
        "reason": null,
        "vol": 31,
        "raw_pnl": 0.00093
      }
    ],
    "recent_journal": [
      {
        "event": "session_start",
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-28 10:24:49+0700",
        "stake_usdt": 25.0,
        "symbols": [
          "BTC",
          "GOLD"
        ],
        "window_minutes": 30,
        "fee_btc": 0.0001,
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      },
      {
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-28 10:28:26+0700",
        "event": "session_start",
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        "end_ts": 1793159689.6209407
      },
      {
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-28 10:35:22+0700",
        "event": "error",
        "where": "submit_open",
        "resp": "{'success': False, 'code': 2030, 'message': 'External order ID too long (max. 32 digit)'}",
        "body": {
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          "vol": 15,
          "leverage": 5,
          "side": 3,
          "type": 5,
          "openType": 1,
          "positionMode": 1,
          "externalOid": "updown30_BTC_1793158200000_DOWN_1793158518"
        }
      },
      {
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-28 10:40:23+0700",
        "event": "error",
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        "resp": "{'success': False, 'code': 2030, 'message': 'External order ID too long (max. 32 digit)'}",
        "body": {
          "symbol": "BTC_USDT",
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          "vol": 15,
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          "type": 5,
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          "externalOid": "updown30_BTC_1793158500000_DOWN_1793158820"
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      },
      {
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-28 10:45:25+0700",
        "event": "error",
        "where": "submit_open",
        "resp": "{'success': False, 'code': 2030, 'message': 'External order ID too long (max. 32 digit)'}",
        "body": {
          "symbol": "BTC_USDT",
          "price": 81173.9,
          "vol": 15,
          "leverage": 5,
          "side": 3,
          "type": 5,
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          "externalOid": "updown30_BTC_1793158800000_DOWN_1793159121"
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      },
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        "end_ts": 1793159689.6209407
      },
      {
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-28 10:54:25+0700",
        "event": "error",
        "where": "submit_close",
        "resp": "{'success': False, 'code': 2001, 'message': 'Order direction error'}"
      },
      {
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-28 10:54:29+0700",
        "event": "bet_settle",
        "result": "loss",
        "symbol": "BTC",
        "side": "DOWN",
        "entry": 81142.3,
        "exit": 81118.4,
        "vol": 15,
        "fee_total": 0.19471275999999998,
        "pnl": -0.158863,
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        "hit": null,
        "actual": null,
        "move_bps": null,
        "close_reason": "session_end_flatten",
        "order_id": null
      },
      {
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-28 10:54:41+0700",
        "event": "error",
        "where": "submit_close",
        "resp": "{'success': False, 'code': 2001, 'message': 'Order direction error'}"
      },
      {
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-28 10:54:45+0700",
        "event": "bet_settle",
        "result": "loss",
        "symbol": "GOLD",
        "side": "DOWN",
        "entry": 4053.0,
        "exit": 4052.97,
        "vol": 31,
        "fee_total": 0.2010284,
        "pnl": -0.200098,
        "raw_pnl": 0.00093,
        "hit": null,
        "actual": null,
        "move_bps": null,
        "close_reason": "session_end_flatten",
        "order_id": null
      },
      {
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-28 11:00:41+0700",
        "event": "session_end",
        "n_bets": 2,
        "n_wins": 0,
        "n_losses": 2,
        "realized_pnl_usdt": -0.358961,
        "fees_paid_usdt": 0.395741,
        "taker_fee_observed": 0.0008,
        "status": "ended",
        "note": "republish live_status for board; SIDE_CLOSE fixed"
      },
      {
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-28 11:13:08+0700",
        "event": "session_start",
        "window_minutes": 60,
        "stake_usdt": 25,
        "mode": "api_futures"
      },
      {
        "ts_bkk": "2026-10-28 11:13:08+0700",
        "event": "session_start",
        "remain_s": 3599,
        "end_ts": 1793164388.920803
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    ],
    "notes": "1h API futures BTC+GOLD @25$. Pairing ON. XRP intact.",
    "updated_bkk": "2026-10-29 04:49:27+0700",
    "schema_version": 1,
    "data_present": true,
    "mexc_symbols": [
      "BTC_USDT",
      "XAU_USDT"
    ],
    "leverage": 5,
    "taker_fee_btc": 0.0008,
    "taker_fee_xau": 0.0008,
    "fee_note": "opérateur+fills: taker 0.08% not 0.01%",
    "process": {
      "pid": null,
      "alive": false
    },
    "xrp_guard": "XRP long — jamais touché",
    "marks_live": true
  },
  "process_health": {
    "run_paper": {
      "name": "run_paper",
      "pid": 10508,
      "alive": true,
      "status": "OK"
    },
    "improve_loop_watcher": {
      "name": "improve_loop_watcher",
      "pid": 10517,
      "alive": true,
      "status": "OK"
    },
    "bet_engine": {
      "name": "bet_engine",
      "pid": 620461,
      "alive": true,
      "status": "OK"
    },
    "watchdog_paper": {
      "name": "watchdog_paper",
      "pid": 10497,
      "alive": true,
      "status": "OK"
    },
    "board_loop": {
      "name": "board_loop",
      "pid": 24799,
      "alive": true,
      "status": "OK"
    }
  },
  "improve": {
    "active_version": "v8",
    "goal": 0.85,
    "next_tighten": "v8.2",
    "override": {
      "name": "v8.2",
      "btc_ret3": 0.0016,
      "btc_ret3_rsi_hi": 75,
      "btc_ret3_rsi_lo": 25,
      "btc_fade_thr": 2.2,
      "btc_fade_rsi_hi": 80,
      "btc_fade_rsi_lo": 20,
      "btc_rsi_ext_hi": 90,
      "btc_rsi_ext_lo": 10,
      "gold_fade_thr": 2.2,
      "gold_rsi_hi": 75,
      "gold_rsi_lo": 25,
      "gold_hours": [
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        15
      ],
      "require_book": true,
      "from": "v8.1",
      "reason": "prec=0.3902439024390244 n=41 <0.85"
    }
  },
  "extras": {
    "BTC": {
      "symbol": "BTC",
      "updated_bkk": "2026-10-29 04:48:31+0700",
      "source": "okx enrich_okx",
      "taker_buy_ratio": 0.6946218990691092,
      "taker_buy_sell_ratio": 2.2746290482247353,
      "funding_rate": 0.0001,
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      "oi_change_1h": 0.0018418548701028274,
      "ls_ratio": 1.96,
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      "liq_imbalance_5m": null,
      "basis_bps": -3.1595227030756234,
      "book_imb_25": 0.3796001870469955,
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      "multi_vote": "UP",
      "multi_n_up": 2,
      "multi_n_down": 1,
      "multi_n_sources": 3,
      "multi_disagree": true
    },
    "GOLD": {
      "symbol": "GOLD",
      "updated_bkk": "2026-10-29 04:48:35+0700",
      "source": "okx enrich_okx+multi",
      "taker_buy_ratio": 0.3453007534212831,
      "funding_rate": null,
      "funding_z": -1.126966492818588,
      "oi_change_5m": 0.4033322818701883,
      "oi_change_1h": null,
      "liq_imbalance_5m": null,
      "basis_bps": null,
      "book_imb_25": 0.032761965251020125,
      "book_imb_5": -0.18144034300061482,
      "multi_vote": "DOWN",
      "multi_n_up": 0,
      "multi_n_down": 3,
      "multi_n_sources": 3,
      "multi_disagree": true
    }
  },
  "alt_metrics": {
    "move_bps_outcomes": [],
    "horizon_15m_outcomes": [],
    "note": "Champs optionnels — apparaîtront quand Gestionnaire les écrit dans journal outcomes"
  },
  "suggested_levers": [
    "DYNAMIC: prec live 42.2% < 85% (n=45) → déclencher tighten v8.1/v8.2",
    "DYNAMIC: backtest v8 BTC 60.2% << 85% — besoin features externes (funding/OI/liq)",
    "Resserre seuils RSI / fade (v8.1 → v8.2) si prec live < 85 % et n≥36",
    "Exiger book imbalance aligné avec le signal (require_book)",
    "Filtrer move suivant ≥8 bps (precision@move) — edge backtest ~65–66 % BTC",
    "GOLD : rester session BKK 8–16 ; tester 8–15 si bruit",
    "Ajouter funding rate OKX + OI delta 5m comme filtre",
    "Ajouter taker buy/sell ratio OKX rubik",
    "Ajouter liquidations OKX (cascade → mean-rev)",
    "Fear & Greed extrême → bias fade",
    "Élargir (v8c.*) seulement si abstain > 90 % après ≥6h paper",
    "min_confidence côté bet_engine une fois n live stable"
  ],
  "help_sources_short": [
    "OKX funding / OI / taker-volume / liquidations (OK)",
    "Fear&Greed alternative.me (OK)",
    "MEXC contract ticker (OK) — Prediction docs manuelle",
    "Binance/Bybit BLOQUÉS depuis ce box"
  ]
}